underlying commodity nearly doubles in 3 month, page-12

Great post CC -Can I play devils advocate? only flaw in your logic that glares at me is that when working out the relative risks you assume the current SP reflects Wonarah alone. FOr example if you were to value Mak without Wonarah going ahead now at even as low as 20c then the value the Market is currently giving wonarah is 20c which via your same maths gives a current chance of all 3 going ahead of 20/150 = 0.13. which if also divided by the assumed 1 and 3 risks of 0.6 and .625 gives a value of .35 - which would assign a much higher market emphasis on RP being the issue to watch. :-)

Winter - I also think another raising is likely but not till after the risks that CC lists are answered. unless these are answered then no mine to biuld, no capital to raise. The cap raising price as it comes after these risks are removed or greatly lessened would effect the discount the market is applying to MAKs sp and hence the raising price. Any cap raising below the CURRENT price assumes Mak to go ahead without RP prices being higher, without opex defined which is v.unlikely.