IMO Paul will never pay back the loan - if the price is below the strike price (whatever that is) the most likely scenario is the company will cancel the shares and "forgive" the loan - PB isn't out of pocket. If the SP is "in the money" Paul simply sells enough shares to cover the cost and pockets the remainder for free.
The shame in all of this is that if the change team is successful (will simply come down to Vimson and Deutsche Ballaton I believe) then Paul will make money from his ineptitude by the SP being considerable higher and him going down the 2nd option.
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