morgan stanley target 1.38, page-3

well its not hard to believe in the citigroup figures
1.38 short term
1.50 longer term 12 months

the estimated EBITA OF $370 - $390 MILLION presumed to be expressed in $AUD
the low production costs...the increase in production
...the massive decrease in debts and associated interest charges
..the departure of overpaid hangeons with more to go...
..all point to a rosy future...
...it would have been better but for flooding hampering transport and the figures would have improved but for fluctuations in the $USD...all temporary situations...

...and of course one has to add in the massive tax losses accrued...meaning NO TAX is payable....for now that also probably means NO DIVIDENDS should be expected in this financial year...as there wont be and credits available ....no real point just handing the TAX man a windfall...
whilst the company is in this ramp up and recovery phase I think its far more prudent to
accumulate all the cash they can get their hands on....the global economy is still unstable
and its more prudent to have a company with an improving bank balance and no debt than
to be reducing cash on hand and hoping that the earnings will continue or even improve
these are times to be conservative and focused on core business not adventurous and foolhardy.
As the $USD improves so does the bank balance in $aud ..this helps offset
commodity price fluctuations....

As the world stumbles from one crisis to another I see light at the end of the tunnel...
...these instabilities need to be exposed and addressed if the global economy is to avoid another GFC....one can't help but notice the problems like DUBAI,ICELAND,GREECE,IRELAND,PORTUGAL AND SPAIN ARE'NT ALL APPEARING AT ONCE BUT are instead being fed out into the market place ...piecemeal...
we saw a similiar thing happen with the banking system....
....this appears to give the market time to adjust,slow down...allowing regulators time
to implement remedial measures resulting in confidence returning to the markeplace...
...it gives the appearance that the regulators are capable of fixing the problems...that countries are capable of working together to remedy such situations......
....it all adds up to shoring up investor confidence...and basically thats what markets run on........take out the confidence and you see market runs and big crashes.....

Dwelling on the past history of OZL and some of its employees clouds the issues faced by
present day OZL....this is a new company....to suggest otherwise ...one should sell and never look back.....old charts and production figures and profits are virtually useless...most are useless....old highs are useless...one needs to start from day one of the new ozl .

NOT having to pay TAX has to be a good thing for OZL...at least for now what they earn they keep ....and this has to shore up investor confidence in the ability of OZL to be around for years to come...unlike basketcases like good old Broker recommended ABC.allco ,
MFS,Babacock and Brown and the list goes on....all debt heavy companies...

Here we have a company with one Conv Note, cash rich, modern mine increasing production and sales and appearing to be only exposed to overall global marketplace trends and the good old SHORTERS.....
.....so overall it appears to be a safe investment ....but for day trades .....its as risky as the rest of the market...on a daily basis...one cannot safely know which way the trend will be...
...on a longer term investment basis when one stands back and takes a good hard look at this company its apparent to me that it will have a significant improvement in price

just my thoughts for now ..at these prices it ,for me is a good buy ...any lower even a better buy...if one is prepared to sit and wait for the overall market to improve....and forge ahead ...which ...HISTORICALLY.....IT HAS always DONE




http://moneyterms.co.uk/ebita/
EBITA
Earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITA) is similar to EBIT but strips out amortisation. Amortisation is always a non-cash item and therefore of limited interest to investors.
Amortisation is of less interest than depreciation (itself excluded from many measures) because it relates to intangible assets, and it cannot be used as even a rough proxy for replacement cost.
EBITA is used in similar ways to other profit measures such as EBITDA. The commonest valuation ratio that uses EBITA is EV/EBITA. This is similar to EV/EBITDA apart from the inclusion of depreciation as a cost. EV/EBITDA is usually preferable.