LIVE Chat and Q&A with Scott this Friday 12 Aug AEST, page-239

Hi Flatvinnie,

I'm by no means a Geologist however, my understanding of the 4 typical elements is; Source Rock (material from which hydrocarbons form), Migration (whether these hydrocarbon can migrate out of the source rock - Oil seep that we have found shows yes), Reservoir (Porous rock or open fractures present to contain the seeping hydrocarbon) and Trap (how good a seal the reservoir has - no good if it all seeps to the surface)

Say if we are 75% sure of each element. when multiplied together we get COS (0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 = 31.6% COS)

The 7 that EREC use would be an expansion on this, is my guess. Any additional measurable added would only make the COS less unless its 100% proven. Even 99% lowers the COS.

Hope that helps.