This post is really for any holders still left out there... and it seems most LT/H have jumped ship at 1c yesterday- great work, saved 20% in losses.. but for the rest of us, we must look to the future with optimism.. for that is all we have left really..
1. The 1 true event horizon lays at the end of Sept-- 4c. That single document will likely determine whether or not the product works or doest work.. Weather has been obliging, inflation ( fuel + labour costs) down, and people out in force.. perfect storm for shipping cases and reducing expenses. Project one integration is said show fruits in Sep 4c, fuel levy, rate card change, supposed signup of 2 large wholesalers etc etc.. I pray the numbers dance for us on 30th sept.
2. Assuming 0 SH participation in the offer, the money actually arriving next week & 4MN pa in cost savings..- we should have cash to EOCY.. which I guess is what was promised from Dean at the start of the year.. except with 30% dilution in this scenario...
3. I think following these items- base case should be a further 30% dilution in the new year to get us through to EOFY23- where godwiling, if the product actually works and dean isn't operating on like 7pc margin.. we should achieve breakeven..
4. Worst case scenario- administration.. which trying to look into the future.. I wouldn't really mind... I would probably envision new admin & all tech stripped from the company and us becoming SH of a logistics business with over 20M annual revenue + modest growth (assuming net terminal operating margin for Kaddy is negative). Going private, cutting all the overpaid developers, marketing and asx compliance staff and just running a lean ship operating a profitable business will see the SP improve.. industry standard for logistics mcap is ~3x revenue-- maybe even more now due to how heavy funds are leaning on risk off... so we'd return to over 60M+ mcap overnight.. just saying.. the business still has some decent assets worth stripping.. so going into admin isn't too bad.. and assuming 7%+ divs each year..wed get back to multibag status after 14 years... make sure u eat ur veggies so ur around for that : )
5. down a couple pips under entitlement price after having 275M shares churned is honestly not as bad as I was expecting.. over 10% of the company has exchanged hands// even if the shares are just churning between different holding accounts of the same entity- someone is holding.. and the concept of over $2MN in day trader money flowing in doesn't really compute on this one.. stocks dont fly when only retail wins/ makes money.. is all ill say on that one.
6. I know ill get a some hate here telling me not to compare the companies.. but we mostly forget that tesla, Netflix, amazon and apple to name a few famous examples.. were all once within 1 Q of insolvency and down pretty bad SP wise..
7. No insider selling... maybe next week well get the substantial trade notice.. Dean offloads 200M shares.. which doest make sense as he knew about the deal a fews weeks ago.. but so far seems they've all held... At this stage- I would not be surprised if something greater was in play with how god damned dire the situation seems,, yet no insider selling.... takeover, replacement of Dean -- MA RC power grab??, insto play to really wipe the registry clean of certain holders, who knows,,, but with being apparently 1 Q from insolvency if this deal doest work out.. I would definitely expect more panic..
still waiting on ur guy's actual thoughts on why we're legitimately beyond cooked-- not just diluted 50% cooked.. but actually beyond repair cooked.... situation isn't great.. but u'd think our CEO was madoff/ dw8 was just discovered to be a shell company for ex- Enron or Lehman or something after reading all fear out here..
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