Beg your pardon Denial. Yes, it appears the
LNA043 trial is only a Phase 2b trial. Gives
Zilosul a lot more breathing space even if ogg
the Novartis drug turns out to be useful.
While on the subject of market potential, the
other day, I did some rough calculations on the
likely PAR share price in 5-6 years, if everything
goes according to plan.
Started off with an expectation of around 100M
OA TAM for the western wealthy nations in 26/27
when Zilosul is likely to hit the market for OA.
Say there is a realistic expectation of 10%
(as you said above) penetration of that market
and let’s take an in between figure of $4K per
patient treated. That gives a yearly sales figure
of $40B.
I think a conservative PAR share of that could
be around 20% or $8B, allowing the rest for
manufacturer and distributors.
Now lets postulate that PAR will need another
2 CR to get Zilosul on to market and take the
issued capital out to about 400M shares.
Lets say MC is 10 times actual or near term
revenue. MC = $80B
Share value $80B divided by 400M
= $200 per share just for OA. Mind boggling.
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