MAY 4.65% 4.1¢ melbana energy limited

Ann: Zapato-1ST Drilling Update and Option Expiry Reminder, page-49

  1. 6,403 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 2441
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4623/4623122-2c9fd37c5a55aafba4b0bbba09788f46.jpg
    Figure 3: This is a gravity model interpretation adapted from E. Johnstone and D. Johnstone et. al, Research and Development into Predictive Geologic Models for the Structural Geology of Cuba Block 9 and Beyond. Havana, Cuba - April 2019.https://www.melbana.com/site/cpfile/1ad34e99-eff1-4231-8119-b14e3a6ec87f/PresentationGeosciensias2019v3FINAL.pdf, scaled and measured by myself. It shows us what happens when they change the target structure to ophiliotic debris, instead of carbonate.

    This also gives us a guide to what depth the "target structure" might be. In this gravity model, they calculated that the target structure should be approximately ~2650m, therefore I am starting to believe this interpretation published in ASX:MAY, 13/05/2022 is correct.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4623/4623166-7837de1d2518e3b56b274f4af4075129.jpg
    Figure 4. https://www.melbana.com/site/cpfile/1ad34e99-eff1-4231-8119-b14e3a6ec87f/PresentationGeosciensias2019v3FINAL.pdf extract adapted from E. Johnstone and D. Johnstone et. al, Research and Development into Predictive Geologic Models for the Structural Geology of Cuba Block 9 and Beyond. Havana, Cuba - April 2019. This is a zoomed in screen shot of the target of interest, intersecting the Zapato-1 planned location.

    According to Figure 1 in post: 63317863 we can see that there is only about ~100metres (I calculate 93metres), of the ophiliolitic conglomerate layer left to be drilled through, (pretty logical time to be logging and casing) this supposedly has a calculated mGal of ~2.75mGal. We know "masses of lesser density within the Earth's crust typically cause variations in gravitational acceleration" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gal_(unit), therefore the density of that strata is responsible for the observed mGal data. The Vega alta Fm is said to be approximately 2.42mGal, therefore, we might see a similar drill rate to the last time we drilled through a 2.3-2.4 mGal structure, hence, ~50-65m/day for 254m (Vega Alta Fm).

    Therefore, there could be another 5.4days at 17m/day drilling through ophiliotic conglomerate (hard rock), then another 5days drilling through the Vega Alta Fm (at 50m/day), then the fabled Zapato prospect may finally be realised. Therefore, if I had to bet on it, and if drilling starts again "commence this weekend" ASX:MAY, 25/08/2022, as today's announcement suggests, then I would say, based on the above reasoning, and according to my own calculations,
    08/09/2022 is black gold day in my opinion.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add MAY (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
Last
4.1¢
Change
-0.002(4.65%)
Mkt cap ! $138.1M
Open High Low Value Volume
4.2¢ 4.3¢ 4.1¢ $184.4K 4.395M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
11 946604 4.1¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
4.2¢ 250000 1
View Market Depth
Last trade - 16.10pm 21/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
MAY (ASX) Chart
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.