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20.0¢ firefinch limited

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GARETH78

8,186 Posts.

2910

28/08/22

13:52

Post #: 63367455
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Originally posted by Karl89: ↑

While I have always been a big fan of WAF, i think they currently have their hands full with works to be done at Kiaka.

i would think a company like Perseus is much more likely to throw their hat in…

Though I through this back to those thinking we would have some sort of fire sale, Perseus bought out Orca… a gold company in Sudan that was near shovel ready with all permits In Place, however work to do and construction of their plant not starting till June 2023 with a 24 month construction and commission timeline….

There are similarities between the actual block 14 deposit and Morila with perhaps block 14 a leg in front base only on pit grade/oz however a true comparison would not be fair until we have the Morila resource upgrade. (Note orca had some other tenements as well that were hardly explored)

The company was bought (including the 15% shares they already owned) for around US$165m which was from memory around 65% premium on Orcas sp.

So us$165m bought them a company that had a key project that was not due for first production till ATLEAST June 2025 which still requires SIGNIFICANT funding to build an entire plant… I’m unsure of what they planned in terms of costs to do with the plant, however if they want anything close to a Morila size plant, it’s fair to say a build cost of us$250m will have to be invested with these post Covid global inflation prices… With a total price tag totaling well over +us$400m and a approx 3 year timeline infront of them, it’s yet another example of what it would cost to purchase FFX outright… and that’s before you through in the ever increasing valuation of its LLL holding….

Re the take over, while Perseus was able to buy our orca for us$165m, the only way I see it working would be a merger of the two companies with firefinch being absorbed. Both companies have give or take 1.2b shares on the register … however PRU currently has a ex valuation of over $2.2b. What ratio would get the merger done is anyone’s guess at the moment however the LLL shares should see an ever increasing evaluation even in the short term… Or could be sold straight away for an instant cash injection.

scale wise, Morila correctly once ramped up, would sit in 2nd place behind Yaoure however in front of Perseus other two sites.

Morila would be instantly producing from day one with a very achievable amount of capital to get it over the line. Once the transaction would be finalised, Morila should be pushing out fairly respectable numbers. Again Not forgetting the LLL shares in the background.

it works however I still don’t think their current main goal here is to be taken over. I’d have no issue holding PRU again, though I think if there were to be an offer put out, there would be multiple offers if the evaluation is set too low. The LLL shares make a take over a very unique proposition.

Expand

The LLL shares are the key here IMO.

A just over 17% stake. Market value currently $115m (as a job lot more).

Someone also has the 28.6m shares sold by FFX if not already sold on market. I think not. I think Canacord could own these. IMO.

There has been ample opportunity to by 4.99% on market the last 6-8 weeks and stay under the reporting threshold.

The escrow shares can vote.

Control those and you control LLL.

Make a TO offer for LLL (forced if over 20%). If approved LLL escrow finished.

If not approved your holding will likely be worth considerably more. It's a WIN WIN.

Creep rules kick in for LLL sub holder.

The key thing is they will want a Gold player to want to pick up the gold assets.

Just my Sunday arvo beer musings.

The thing is there is money to be made here by someone. Potentially alot.

A few Li Producers starting to build up some serious cash holdings and have limited borrowings (Loan to buy LLL??)

Last edited by GARETH78: 28/08/22

FFX Price at posting: 20.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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