gC NEWC to API-5 Differential, page-21

Given their updated dividend policy and intention to pay qtrly, here is a simplistic but I believe rational approach to the next 12 months ASSUMING the current elevated coal prices are maintained and of course similar level of production and related costs.

Qtr ended 30 June 2022 - A$224m EBITDA. Suggests say 896m for next 12 months. No debt therefore no interest expense. Depreciation and amortisation of $40m and new Qld Govt coal royalties maybe $30-40m. For convenience- Net profit before tax of $800m and a tax expense of 30% so NPAT of $560m. Dividend policy of 60-90% of NPAT so using mid point of 75% = $420m of dividends. 800m shares on issue - so quite possibly 52 cents fully franked over next 12 months IF coal prices and production stay at current elevated level and frankly WHC and NHC have both recently stated they expect coal prices to remain very high in the short to medium term.

After the 10 cent unfranked div in Sept we may well enjoy a 12-13c fully franked div in Nov and every 3 months thereafter. Makes for a rather crazy dividend yield but who knows how many years of high coal prices there remain from here on. Buy the next 12 months looks a bonanza to me.
David