The Brains Trust-2022, page-1650

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daveironore

3,715 Posts.

419

29/08/22

13:12

Post #: 63382652
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Originally posted by cha: ↑

Hi Dave
the first point I would make is wdl is in an uptrend and should continue
my style as you know is to buy on the first break up and derisk it as it rises and then I am happy to risk some as a hold
otherwise it is always 50.50 at each level for me at least so i would not buy wdl here but nor would i sell

the second point is the wdl chart and volume. the high volume day was 2 june and it has recovered and risen ever since. that little period from 6.4.22 to 2.6.22 is what i would look for a repeat of. ie a descending wedge then the high volume day then the backtest and off we go to the next level
i am speaking as a trader i would wait for that movement
but as an investor. it may just keep going here and i am holding some

the most likely pattern i see is churn and fade
also it is now at the old high from Jan 2020 of $36. will it get through or fall back. why not wait and see at this point. in early 2020 it hit $36 and then halved. yes that old 50% level came into play around $18 so again why risk it here?

the third point is some energy stocks are going gangbusters here. my ivz has just taken off. from 1c days to 31c. it is massive as it proves up. i posted on it at the time.
wdl was the bluechip from sub $20 and ivz and exr the specs.
here and now? higher risk and still an unknown for me at least

the fourth point is the world macros. friday was a horrible day with the US Fed still dominating the news. We can see the pattern. the doves and the hawks in battle
stocks in a megaphone which often ends down.
that turmoil is great for trading but i like the hammer to get set

the final point is we looked at cxo a few weeks or months back. it has completed its count up and hit its previous high. today it has fallen back from that level
my experience with double tops is they do exist for good reason. it is like the gold bull of 2020. i called the high there despite all the media predictions of $3000 plus gold on its way to the moon. the johnny come latelys all bought the inevitable pullback over the last 2 years. yes it ended up with a double top but the real story was already finished. most were left holding the bag. i expected the cup and handle to see it play out in possibly 3 years. but again it needs to prove up . i could easily be wrong but i am watching it all carefully here for the possible handle to play out. if it works it will be massive
gold silver copper nickle rare earths uranium energy reits. all beautiful in their way and all lethal if you are on the wrong side of the trade.
so with cxo it has had its double top. it is an unknown. fade is always in play 90% of the time

all these stocks post end of QE are looking for a new direction. they have all recovered somewhat and most are holds at best for me especially with US Fed clearly in control.
I hope that makes sense. yes it can all rise from here but the risk to reward scenario is a lot different. happy to hold some.

some o fthe energy stocks are going gangbusters here and now.

Expand

Yes I certainly noticed that in CXO

I think MIN may be a good guide here too.

Winding up or distribution top even a potential broadening top.

My brother a high end engineer in gas power generation. I asked why Victorian gas is so high despite no war here he said they can do what they want to push up prices and make as much as possible.

Certainly a different market from metals

XSO Value at posting: 2,900.2
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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