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NCM

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$23.35 newcrest mining limited

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Calvo

10,899 Posts.

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29/08/22

14:07

Post #: 63384136
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Originally posted by roulette ↑

$36 to $14 could take 4 years right. once you're down to 14, then there's enough energy in the market to make it rally all the way back to 36 over another 4 year period. I'm thinking BHP at $16 only 4 years ago. meanwhile, there could be better opportunities somewhere else. fundamental analysis is very idealistic in a game where we are trying to scalp each other. your loss is my gain, that's a fact. whether NCM is a descent company means FA. though the fact it's in the ASX20 makes it investment grade for me. So to hell with the adage 'our ideal time frame is forever, we seek out the best companies and hold". that's BS. my trading has improved buy growing balls and pushing the sell button at the right time (chart patterns, candles, MA and the broader market) by understanding and practicing my trading on technicals. trading asx20 companies is my fundamental analysis. anything outside the asx20 is high risk, but i do it anyway. I focus on 1-2 stocks, a 10 stock portfolio is BS, i cannot pick 10 winners and i can't track them all and memories their price moves, patterns, etc. and patience waiting for the priceto return to a historical support level, block out the noise, the hype. So I'm "short" NCM as in I've sold my long position and am looking to buy in at a lower price. the worst that can happen is i get it wrong and miss a profit. but there are buying opportunities everywhere. the ASX 200 chart tells me we either have a small pull back ahead (likely) or a black swan (no proof yet, hype only, but FK blind Freddie can see a recession coming). was the ASX200 low in June the forward looking correction for the looking recession? if so, we'll retest that low and move on to better days..

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I hear you - I have a few in my portfolio. A200, TLT (20+ year bond ETF pays monthly dividend), MQG, WES, BHP, AMC, ANZ and now NCM is the core for now also hold 2-3 smaller capped stocks. I barely watch them tbh - too busy trading currencies and indices. I don't trade stocks I invest in them only - min 6 months max three years and prefer to be heavily weighted in bellwhether blue chips only.
As for NCM - not too fussed about current prices it will ebb and flow based on margins and margins will come through the price of gold. I am not bull or bear on gold either but as a seasonal play to have in portfolio to leverage off gold futures seasonalities. I'm liking these low prices in an odd way.

NCM Price at posting: $17.47 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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In the Buy Zone, page-217

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