Ann: Dividend/Distribution - WDS, page-83

"1. Over what period are you thinking when you are looking at "potential upside" eg 1,2,3,4 years"

Good question, because there's a big difference between 50% upside to intrinsic value being delivered in one year compared to over three years.

The answer is that it generally depends on the nature of the stock in question.

I have no specific time horizon expectation but experience has taught me to view deep value (i.e., mostly cyclical) stocks differently to long-duration growth stocks.

In the case of the former, when I get them right, the upside is usually banked within 12 to 18 months, but in the case of the latter it can take several years for it to play out fully (but usually with part-upside being harvested along the way... by way of example of this in theory, at the risk of being accused as cross promoting, see here: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/63442702/single) .


"2. You would seem to mostly be allocating 1 to 4 % to selected stocks - does this mean that you have a portfolio of around 30 stocks?"

It's probably more like 45 stocks big (a veritable zoo of them; too many, I know)

As much as I try to avoid having just 1% positions where I can help it (because it less impactful on overall returns), it is unavoidable, I've found over time because a.) the desire to avoid friction costs such as tax and brokerage, and b.) I tend to be a bit of a hunter-gatherer-hoarder of businesses.

So, while I have a number of ~1% positions (and even several sub-1% positions for various legacy reasons), I also have a few concentrated positions (5% to 6%... well, concentrated for me, that is).

So my portfolio looks like a bit of a lognormal distribution, with a small number of punchy 5% to 6% positions, followed by a longish tail of positions 2% and smaller

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