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18:12
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Originally posted by dc1234:
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Stocks at the crossroads . Yes AZL lost 1 pip to finish on 8.2c. . ASX Li stocks were in decline today. Of the 54 stocks that I track, average decline was 2% . Overnight US Li stocks did not have a good day and dropped from 2 to 6%. . .. What next - . Yesterday US indices were looking for a dive before market opened. It did go down, but somehow crawled back in the second half with couple of indices finishing in green, including SP 500. But most of the resource stocks that I track were in decent red. ASX though could not emulate the green of US. Again the resource stocks that I follow finished in red - but ASX stocks drop was less than US. . Yesterday I had mentioned that there is a good chance that US indices will go down before they go up. And I said " it would be good to test the trendline of 3900 and rebound from there ". So what happened to SP 500? It went to a low of 3903 and finished at 3965. Well, well - did it play as I wanted, and many others too? Or was that a false rebound? I feel we are at the crossroads. Some say that the slight green was just a small rebound for 4 red days. Others are more optimistic. Bears still in majority though. . Today was a big buy day for me. I am aware that this rebound of SP 500 could be a false signal. Earlier I had planned that if SP 500 rebounds of 3900 then I will take a risk and buy back stocks I had sold when SP 500 could not hold 4180, and I stuck to it half-heartedly. Lets see if the risk pays off - at this stage its 50/50. . What will happen tonight? US markets are closed on Monday. So today's play will provide direction for 2 ASX trading days. I feel tonight is very crucial. If the rebound on SP 500 was true, US indices have to be green, possibly good green. If its not and market falls over 1%, I have a strong feeling we may go lower to test 3800 on SP 500. US Futures are in slight red at this stage. Asian markets were largely red today, but not much. Volatility index VIX fell slightly yesterday to 25.56, but well above the 20 mark. The cryptos are in total confusion, but holding the ground, not panicking. Bitcoin hovering around the 20k mark. Tonight crucial job data which may provide strong direction to market. Yesterday markets did not like the jobless claims data, as it came lower. So if jobless claims was less, unemployment may trend lower as well - market will not like that. So odds are against us. But stranger things have happened. Will US indices march forward before the long weekend? Lets hope so. enjoy your weekend and all the best.
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Well, I think you may have missed one point i.e non farm payroll (August) data tonight and market probably braced itself for that , last month fig was 528,000 and this time expected fig is 300,000......lets see and hope for the best, if it fell below 300,000, we will probably have relief rally tomorrow.
(20min delay)