assuming-
5mmbls @ 50% = 2.5mmbls
2.5mmbls @ say AUD$15 = AUD$37.5 million
EPE scrip fully diluted @ say approx 100 million
= 37.5c per share
so if underlying EPE is trading at 27.5c then a strike would roughly be adding 37.5c of value to equal around.........65 cents per share.
adjust for your discount rates, capex etc and you can get the picture
i would think a commercial strike would send it to around half the 37.5c say plus 20c to equal between 45-50cents per share. however it will no doubt be taken over by greed and daytraders so it may overshoot 50cents.
anyway these are my thoughts for the sole purpose of generating discussion. other opinions invited.
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