General Discussion Banter GLN, page-8550

Someone on Twitter just asked me what GLN could be worth in the coming 1 to 2 years (I think they are a new holder) so I thought I would replicate my answer for any new holders that are wondering about the potential here (I think GLN is not very well known or understood in this respect).

1) Valuation Based on Existing PEAs
Based on the current studies (PEAs) for HMW & Candelas I have the following valuation roadmap to production. Note that the valuations change depending on the SP that we raise the funds for the capex (I assume 50% debt/equity). Also, keep in mind that this valuation model is quite conservative especially with respect to lithium stocks - most lithium stocks are at the "high" end of the valuation and sometimes many multiples higher. The production PE ratios I use are a little more aggressive (less conservative). You can see how the valuation increases as we move to the DFS stage, followed by offtake (OT) and then financing, construction and finally steady state production. However, expect the share price to start to rise in anticipation of these milestones.


In the above I have combined 2 projects together which will run on different timeframes. However, the overall outcome should therefore be better because we can use the profit from HMW to fund Candelas meaning less dilution.

2) Valuation Based on $23,609 Lithium Carbonate
The numbers get even better if we recalculate the Post Tax NPV and FCF (Post Tax Free Cash Flow) using the Lithium price that LPI used in their DFS. So this is not a pie in the sky spot price valuation - it's a realistic valuation based on the same pricing assumption that LPI used in their DFS.


3) Valuation Based on 25ktpa at HMW & $23,609 Lithium Carbonate
The numbers get better again if we increase the output of HMW to 25ktpa which has been hinted at by the MD (but not confirmed). Here I have increased capex by around 100m to account for the additional output - it's just a guess but whether it's $50m, $100 or $200m ($200m seems way too high to me) it won't make a big difference to the outcome.


The potential is absolutely staggering compared to the current market cap.

ALL IMO DYOR