Ann: Half Yearly Accounts, page-15

did anyone else notice in the half yearly that they updated the H2 forecast slightly vs the Jun quarterly - FCF (post capex and hedge losses) now expected at 16.1m vs 14.7m (driven by lower "G&A and interest expense"). All slightly moot though as given that WTI oil price is c. $10-15/bbl below their forecast... i'm expecting actuals will be more like $4m FCF for Sep-qtr and $6m FCF for Dec-qtr (assuming Dec-qtr WTI is around the $85 mark).

Really hoping for a pick up in pricing Nov/Dec once SPR release is over, Dec EU oil bank comes in and Russia price cap... not to mention China relaxing covid rules post Xi's reappointment in Nov.

What will be interesting is the $5m of buybacks/div they have flagged in H2 - we already know they are paying the $2.5m cap return in a a couple of weeks, so q will be if/when they do the extra $2.5m buyback - again, i'm expecting this some time in Oct after the $2.5m is paid.

Separately, i see this now as about $30m p.a. FCF (post maint capex) at WTI around 80-85/bbl. at 30% FCF yield that should be around $100m market cap (16-17c)... then add whatever you want for risk-adjusted montney.