Ann: Scoping Study - Port Gregory Garnet Project, page-100

@Cookiemycat I have to admire your determined confidence... no matter how limbs I cut off lol



Below is the real TZMI 2020 Garnet Supply-Demand outlook chart, with the likely new supply not stripped out as per HVY scoping study chart. Not going to waste my time proving it, but TZMI have the same history of incorrectly predicting too much demand growth and too little supply response across all mineral sands products in the same way the Oz Treasury wrongly predicts too much budget revenue and too little expenditure budget after budget outlook... TZMI are ultimately a consultant to mine development clients, who pay the bills, and the clients always want to show their shareholders the most rosy outlook possible within credible variance.



First thing to notice is that supply has topped out at 1200tpa going back to 2015, and those existing suppliers will keep on trucking at 1200tpa. Demand may actually grow to 2030 as forecast but not before another of those typical global downturn dips 2023-24 driven by falling demand and prices in the mean time. Not sure what projects TZMI had in mind for their 'New Projects' but it probably didn;t include RDG who hadn't dealt on Menari yet or Engobe who hadn't completed their DFS let alone got funded yet.

My list of likely new supply to fill increased demand over the decade includes

RDG - 160ktpa from beginning of 2023, increasing to 250ktpa expansion in 2026/27
Engobe - 180ktpa from beginning of 2024 (have built already)
Westland - 20ktpa from beginning of 2024 (underway now), increasing to 500ktpa by 2030 (garnet sold in HMC)
Barrytown - 250ktpa from beginning of 2026 in HMC
India - post political re-start, driven by monazite price and demand, will exceed above chart by a lot...
Toliara - 25ktpa from 2026 at cost to suppliers for quality assurance before locking 250ktpa from 2030 with upside

I haven't included HVY 150ktpa in that list but anything is possible, they might be invincible