From my perspective, you certainly seem a smart and informed poster and correct re early shipments.
Senior Mining Analysts (3) I have access to (25-40 years experience each) believe MS have an exceptional MT-LT outlook as a 'supply side' story. STA has only fixed illeminte as its dynamics are least favourable - CPI related increases only. With STA producing 10% of the worlds premium zircon and 80% of off takes Nth American and Europe and they see the MT-LT outlook as very favourable for zircon and rutile. LG said in recent weeks the 50% expansion is very likely so from the current 'spot price' EBITDA of 160m ish we are talking up to 250m EBITDA within 2 years - yes assuming spot prices hold which means the world avoids a major recession and China doesnt implode on ongoing CV lockdowns.
Do you think a tier one mine in WA with 30-40 years trading at 5x PE and a DY of (as per forecasts from the largest broker covering STA) around 11% grossed up DY in 2 years time is unfavourable? I certainly dont...
4 brokers having 40-60% upside BEFORE production starts early and with an early start to prodn, expansion decision over coming mths, spot prices likely to remain strong due to lack of material new supply, ILU being the worlds largest MS player right next door with a declining prodn profile and based on higher multiples and an ability for corporate action plus Tanzania etc etc. Plus LG being deemed as the next big mining Exec in Oz according to many experienced heads I speak to....
Not sure its that hard to at least be neutral if not very positive on this stock. After a broker briefing 2-3 weeks ago (same day as mining preso) and then to a couple of major Fund Managers, perhaps I am reading into it too much but with volume increasing and SP overall moving up to me it seems like 1-2 new names are entering the register.
STA will provide updated TZMA pricing guidance later this year LG said recently.
Bookmark this one mate and see where things are in 6 and 12 months time
I'm too tight to pay for professional market pricing updates but blind Freddy can see the min sands pricing boom is coming off and likely to fall rapidly into the northern winter
STA Price at posting:
50.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)