FOI documents for July to Dec 2021 re VRX & EPA, page-106

It is very difficult to say but I'll have a go. And I admit up front that you can drive trucks through the following scenarios so please don't attack me, attack the logic / guesses if you must.

Scenario 1 -
EPA does not approve stage 3 or the VDT methodology and VRX has to go back to the drawing board then sp at 5c-7c
Possible Board and management shake up and a very cheap takeover by an experienced miner.
possibilty % - 20%

Scenario 2 - EPA approves stage 3 and the VDT method by xmas (please don't laugh). Offtakes for the first 2m tonnes signed by xmas / January '23 then sp to 25c - 50c
possibility % - 50%

Scenario 2a - Stages 4 & 5 get approved by say March 2023 - at the same time, financing for capex happens. If sp is 50c, then maybe a combo of shares and loan, otherwise loan. Maybe a barter deal with offtake partner.
possibility % - 50%

Scenario 3 - We dig and sell sand to offtake partner by xmas 2023, then sp 50c - 60c. At this point, a nth will take time to ramp up and financing and approvals are required for Muchea and A Central. Still a huge risk because Muchea is the cream and the epa approval will be tougher there as it's closer to Perth etc. The SP would have built in the time and cost to actually start making real money from Muchea, hence, my expectation is that there will be little upside from here in the sp until Muchea is close to being up and running.
possibility - 50%

Scenario 4 - Once EPA is done and dusted (2a) then we get a takeover bid at a circa 25-50% premium on top of 50c. maybe 75c. This company would then be ripe for the picking and quite frankly, I think I would probably sell at 75c at this point.
possibility - 75%

I really want this to get over the line and quickly. However, management have given very little confidence that they can get this across the line. Yes, a lot of admin and paperwork by the consultants have occurred but it has taken far too many iterations.
Do I want to see $1 - sh.. yeah. Do I want to see $4.26 - per my valuation - fu.. yeah. But sadly, I cannot see that happenning at all.

INMO & DYOR - this is not financial advice.