Recent Gold M&A in Australia - Big Premiums on Acquisitions, page-85

I can’t see why a retail investor would buy shares in the SPP when they can get them cheaper on the market. And when the big holders dump the shares they’ve bought through the placement, the price will be even lower. The only reason to participate is if you’ve got a teflon-coated belief that a year from now AZY will be worth much more than the current share price and you can exercise your options. But at a maximum of around a million shares, they’d have to be a lot higher in a year to warrant tying your money up for that long. Then, from that hypothetical profit in a year, deduct the extra money you’re paying by not buying on market. With that in mind, it seems strange that anyone would go through the SPP.

In the absence of a huge discovery, the PFS will be the next catalyst for a serious share price movement – which direction is unknown. Deep drilling at Minyari may turn up something amazing but, as I've mentioned before, if a 250% increase in Minyari's MRE sent the share price down, I think the only thing that would send it up is finding Havieron's big brother. Added to that unlikely scenario, the looming reality of a $300 million cap raise that will be required to finance a mine and plant will neutralise any gains made on the back of even a very good discovery, if there is one. That ever-present reality of the next cap raise will, I think, keep the price down for the next year at least.

I don't fancy betting on those odds. It's not only about the current share price and past performance, but because the chances of a return within the next year are too low. That's not to say it can't happen, but if you go by probability and not possibility, it's a very long shot.

I think AZY is now such a gamble that I'd put it in the category of a flutter rather than an investment and bet accordingly. On that basis, I'd rather go to a horse race, get better odds, an outcome in two minutes, and enjoy a day outdoors with some fun thrown in.