View attachment 4707754Some fairly solid volumes going through into a waivering market. Would think when the index gets it's stuff together this comfortable pushes on but we'll see.
I think if it can break 1.5c i think it's around the 1.9-2c as the overhead.
Looking the stochastic trends and RSI potential divergence in play. Would love to see them both break that end up in the red circle.
End of october drawn vertically as a rough guidance of SS news.
When i logged on to see a barrage of negative posters it's a good indication usually of a discounted shareprice based on a fair bit of retail sentiment.
I also appreciate that for those holding it can hard to see the forest from the trees - but the economics right now are the best they've been and the recent news announcement is not inconsequential.
If you do some baseline on resource size and grade to say;
MNB 29% grade for ~9mt = 90m MC
CXM 30% grade for ~10mT = 90m MC
AEV has 30% grade for 67mT = 16m MC
Noting CXM had a research note pushing a 28c target = ~200M MC.
You can review the DFS 2021 and look at the inputs on pricing 135/t USD and almost double that of current
https://www.centrexlimited.com.au/w...or-Collison-Centrex-Ltd-CXM-Research-Note.pdfNot only can AEV underpin a LoM 6-7 times larger than peers it's value at at 5-6 times less.
i would argue upside on MNB and CXM given the underlying economics of their NPV's from studies based on economics which are no longer valid.
The SS should underpin some very solid economics and the recent news of an MOU should not be understated.
The reality is that the Deposit AEV has is actually world class. They fact it hasn't been developed in the past doesn't mean it won't in the future. Under the current macro conditions this looks like the best chance they've ever had to get it going and with arguably the smallest market cap they've had at the time.
no buy sentiment; for those that don't know i only indicate a buy status if i have done so on the day. Also FWIW and transparency i did participate in the raise. I have not sold anything. I may elect to sell half upon 1.9-2c being reached but will re-evaluate based on the economics of the SS.
have done some back the napkin stuff myself here but would like to review and refine before posting.
SF2TH
(20min delay)