anybody out there?, page-4

Yeah, the result was pretty disappointing, but nothing diastorous...it just won't translate into a re-rating of the stock price. Given the lack of (even negative) growth over the last 12 motnhs the current ~8x PE feels about right to me.

Here is how I see this one playing out over the long-term. Would be good to hear others thoughts.

The strat plan out to 2015 requires volume growth of ~25-30% per year in terms of hog tonnes. However, expectations for domestic market growth (in the same plan) is only 5-10%. So I'm expecting to see a reduction in unit pricing over the next couple of years that will further hurt margins.

I think the net result will still be some healthy eps growth over the next 5 years (just not in line with volume growth). If they achieve their strat plan, we might be talking about net earnings growth of say 15% p.a (target 2015 eps of ~30c-40c)

Assuming they can deliver this kind of growth then we'd be talking about a PE of closer 10-12x. On that basis I'd expect the share price to be $3.00-$4.00 in 2015. Given the current share price of ~$1.60 we're talking about an annualised return of 12-20%. Ok, but not earth shattering