IVZ Share Price, page-6529

If you use the CoS numbers provided by IVZ, then the chance they hit one of the 8 targets is 85%:this is not the chance of it being commercial . This is just simple maths. It could be that with each formation, a non discovery reduces the probability of sucess for the next target. I dont know oil and gas well enough to understand how probabilities interact based on prior discovery/non discovery on each play.

In terms of valuation, Scott has talked about IVZ like this: pre drill = cents per McF, contingent discovery = tens of cents per McF, post confirmation of commercialisation = high tens/dollars per McF.