so what has really changed since 15/12/09?

To the all the realists/nonrealists/rampers/downrampers et al out there on HC.

On the 15th Dec 09 I said the following,



"To all MEO posters

Whether your opinions on MEO be :

For/against or undecided ! We all have a right to our views.An open mind will open doors and open opportunities...think about it.

You must all now realise at this late stage in 2009 that this is The Week Crunch time for MEO's credibility in our minds..good ,bad or indifferent.

Jan 1 2010..the new decade, is 18 days away. A new mentality after the break will set in.

MEO have until the 23rd of Dec..that means 7 working days..absolute latest..to deal with solicitors to finalise documentation on a huge deal...unless they are willing to pay massive fees to keep the top end of town Lawyers busy over Xmas and up to New Year...I don't think so! In my game, I have never seen it happen in 20 years ..no matter how big the deal...forget the deadlines!

Credibility crunch points.


A:

The preferred Farminee Mid Dec board meeting is partially to approve the execution of the binding Agreements between itself and MEO.

These agreements would have been pre prepared for for approval and execution at that meeting...especially in view of the late,not forgetting the 31 Dec Deadline to lose Artemis,delay/ excuse,given by the Farminee.I would certainly hope the MEO was not aware of that delay early in November.

Cred gap 1: Responsibility to Sharholders

If do not get a status report this week ,then in my view MEO will lose credibility as a company reponsible to and keeping its shareholders informed of, key ,price sensitive developments.

B.

The CR organised ,post haste, last month to Sophisticates was to the detriment of current shareholders at the time. We had no participation in it..20% disc off the VWAP SP of 55c...nice if we got some!

This was done to secure Artemis by 31 Dec 2009. A fallback scenario by MEO. This led me to believe that the Farminee was really stuffing MEO around with promises....
Manyana,Manyana..free Chicken Manyana! MEO must have had suspicions of this mid November..otherwise how could they have organised the SP so quickly.

Cred Gap 2: Sucked In!

MEO had possibly been SUCKED IN by their preferred Farminees promises. Obviously they had other suitors with lesser deals and promises but,nevertheless, deals ready to go..probably WPL and Chevron. If MEO accepted a lessor deal then maybe they would not have needed a CR that has left MEO in weakened postion and certainly their shareholders susceptible to a potential plunge in SP.

C:

Farminee renegotiations in 2010 will have to occur if the MEO's preferred Farminee stalls proceedings again. If they do then I for one would be against MEO doing any further business with this type of Shafter and Grafter company. So far it has not been a straight up and down process..not a good sign.


At the time of this post it is now Effectively 1st March 2010. I am also watching the history of the GFC on SBS @ 9.35 pm Sunday.


I emphasised that the Farminee MEO selected,in retrospect may not have been the best alternative. At the time of posting the SP was 43.5c.

The punters favourite Farminee ,Woodside, came out with various statements alluding to disappointment that Woodside could not stitch up a deal with a "party/ies" to secure potential future gas for train 2 and further for their long term plan.


All we are really doing is going over old ground so many times over and over..the research is so well known to most of us "older holders" that it is beginning to stink.

Dr Daz,you may not realise it, but what you are posting is so "old hat" to all the informed/well informed MEO holders and MEO activists alike that you would do yourself a favour not to treat a lot of us like imbeciles..even though you may mean well.As Caesar said to the proletariate
" Credat Judaeus Apella,Non Ego!!"

Apologies to PaulB1..in case you know your latin..maybe you don't!

My trading is based on a " Sine Audacia, Nulla Gloria" approach , of course bearing in mind that all punters in MEO need to take a "Caveat Emptor" approach.I did.

Now would anyone out there like to debate the dramatic ghanges that have occured with MEO since the 15th December 2009.

In my opinion ,if Petrobras is the Farmin partner then we may well have a huge partner but we will also have huge problems with decision making processes...Better MEO went with Woodside in my opinion...but that is only my opinion.

I have disclosed how I trade in previous posts! That should not scare anyone with a different point of view.

I want MEO to perform and I expect it to but I am not convinced about the choice of partner...Who is dragging the chain and for what reason? Is it to bring the VWAP down for an equity position or have I started the red wine to early.

Come on guys...MEO is a winner..but , I am not sure if we will be the winners...

Opinions Please..feel free to rubbish my view with a good argument..no rehashing of previous ramping..curt one liners are ok but please qualify.

"Bugga off HR " is quite OK....I am getting depressed watching this SBS program, knowing that LLOYDs have just dropped approx $11B pounds last week..Greece is still stuffed,US not much better off..GFC pt 2 is still hanging around like a bad smell.

Assume we get the biggest and best Farmin deal of the century at the end of March only to be stuffed by a general downturn in the market due to GFC 2 ..Will we say "we should have locked in Woodside in 09"

Any thoughts out there?

I am still Gung HO with MEO but must excercise some caution until I can "Free Carry" my holdings.

Well,all you supporters/non supporters/sharks/bystanders/newbies/Old timers/Not so Old timers/Ex wives ..What Do you Think?

At least its not the usual rehash of FA/TA/NFI.

Cheers all..you can all make a buck ..play it smart!

"In Vino Veritas"

My opinions only, the wine was a catalyst!

Any spelling or grammar mistakes on the first draft are not my fault..I just punch it up as I listen to SBS.