Target $18.72, page-213

@Vanguardian78
I think this view is worth keeping in the back of one's mind, even if, yes, coal was certainly on the up well before Ukraine and many on my radar were loudly predicting a post-covid global energy crisis long before the invasion; it's for sure not "all cos of Ukraine". But ultimately, though it is for sure still cheap by most metrics, WHC was *ludicrously* cheap for a while even relative to the lower coal prices back then, when we were all loading up; I can't pretend to predict what the share price would look like if within a short window of time we saw an end to sanctions + full swing in-your-face global recession/depression, but my guess is WHC would be "ludicrously cheap" once again (relative to NEWC). Which would probably be a buying opportunity, yes, but if (keyword: if) you could see a buying opportunity coming yet remained fully invested, that would hardly be ideal.

Ultimately I think even with a moderate drop in coal price and whatever related action occurs in the share price, dividends will prove holders correct over the opinions of the broader market, but that takes time and *if* a magic genie privately told me sanctions were ending tomorrow + the global economy was going to have a massive crash that sliced out a quarter of all manufacturing energy use, I would sell all my WHC in a heartbeat. Obviously that's not helpful in isolation, as I have no genie, but it's something relevant to keep in mind if for example I start to develop more confidence that that's what's going to happen, and price of WHC doesn't seem to be reacting to it appropriately.

Counterpoint: I do find the "new normal" coal price arguments ITT compelling, but I also think for myself as a newbie/generalist it's a wise heuristic to only give them a certain max % confidence no matter how much you like them, simply as a safety rail against the classic "this time it's different" that we are told crushes so many in every top of every cycle. I leave the task of correctly assessing (and acting on!) that "new normal" to older, more experienced, and more knowledgeable posters than myself, e.g. some of those ITT with decades of experience in the energy/coal industries.

[All this is kind of abstract musing though, in the short term I am absolutely holding 100% of my position even with it now being past the 12 month CGT discount window, *especially* with the price being down this past week]