Interesting numbers from the investor presentation.
1. 3,000,000 cfd rate (middle range estimate)-assuming stable rate for first 1 year and drop by 1/2 for next 4 years to 1.5m cfd per lateral well. 2. 50 lateral wells per pad sites.
In a hypothetical scenario where these gas are exported to EU, where average house/business use about 150cf a day and with average gas bill of €1500 per year (price at pre-Russian invasion where gas price is €50, whereas now is €190), these numbers give some interesting guesstimate of the potential revenue per pad site. Using the lowest flow rate of 1.5m cfd over first 4 years. 1.5m cfd ÷ 150cfd x 50 wells x €1500 x 4 years = €3b over 4 years per pad site.
Rough estimates that are not included tax, local benefits contribution, and cost of production. Local benefits of 6% agreed by Cuadrilla means local community get €180m over 4 years.
Any views on this guesstimate?
AJL Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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