XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-4806

Found a really awesome analysis about the nord stream pipeline by Anders Puck Nielsen, a Danish Military analyst. Rather than trying to speculate on what country blew up the pipeline he talks about what state someone would have to be in to plan & execute such an act of sabotage.

He makes use of a economic theory called "Prospect theory" sometimes also used by security analysts. The theory can be broken down into 2 parts:
1. People are careful when they are winning
2. People take risks when they are losing

Very obvious Russia is in a war that they are loosing. So painful they are willing to take on big risks as they are in a crisis management environment. On the other hand US, NATO & Ukraine are winning the war so they don't need to take on big risks.

He thinks cutting the gas supplies to Europe has not had the economic effects on Europe they were hoping for, so blowing up the pipeline close to Europe is a warning or message about the waves of sabotage that might be unleashed on various pieces of critical European / US Infrastructure.

Another valid argument could be Gazprom's can now state they cannot meet their contract obligations for gas supplies as the pipelines are not functional.

Also I think if a more competent state actor was involved we could have seen a similar result with very little forensic evidence left at the scene of the crime. Perhaps the best example was the damage done to one fifth of the Iranian centrifuges using the Stuxnet computer worm.