XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-4809

First 4809 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
kacy

11,779 Posts.

606

06/10/22

11:39

Post #: 64059075
Share

Originally posted by wave4: ↑

Found a really awesome analysis about the nord stream pipeline by Anders Puck Nielsen, a Danish Military analyst. Rather than trying to speculate on what country blew up the pipeline he talks about what state someone would have to be in to plan & execute such an act of sabotage.

He makes use of a economic theory called "Prospect theory" sometimes also used by security analysts. The theory can be broken down into 2 parts:
1. People are careful when they are winning
2. People take risks when they are losing

Very obvious Russia is in a war that they are loosing. So painful they are willing to take on big risks as they are in a crisis management environment. On the other hand US, NATO & Ukraine are winning the war so they don't need to take on big risks.

He thinks cutting the gas supplies to Europe has not had the economic effects on Europe they were hoping for, so blowing up the pipeline close to Europe is a warning or message about the waves of sabotage that might be unleashed on various pieces of critical European / US Infrastructure.

Another valid argument could be Gazprom's can now state they cannot meet their contract obligations for gas supplies as the pipelines are not functional.

Also I think if a more competent state actor was involved we could have seen a similar result with very little forensic evidence left at the scene of the crime. Perhaps the best example was the damage done to one fifth of the Iranian centrifuges using the Stuxnet computer worm.

Expand

"He thinks . . . blowing up the pipeline close to Europe is a warning or message about the waves of sabotage that might be unleashed"

Well how does that explain Russia putting together a crew to fix the leaks? Paying a lot to build a pipe, then blowing it up, then paying a lot to fix it don't make any sense to me? Especially when you are short on cash.

XJO Value at posting: 6,820.3
5 Upvote

Reply

Top Stories

Week 29 Wrap: ASX hits new all time high of 8,766pts ahead of Aug 1

BDM

Burgundy plunges -20% after turning to layoffs to navigate record-low diamond prices

PSC

Prospect's Mumbezhi Project puts it at the middle of copper's megatrend. And FQM just bought in

PTX

This rare type of lymphoma ruins the body – so do existing treatments. Prescient could have a solution

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 018 – Potatoes, TACOs, and the $120M helicopter heist

First 4809 Last

Add to My Watchlist

What is My Watchlist?

A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

(20min delay)
Last 8,757.2		Change 118.200(1.37%)		Mkt cap ! n/a

Open	High	Low
8,639.0	8,776.4	8,639.0

XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-4809

Week 29 Wrap: ASX hits new all time high of 8,766pts ahead of Aug 1

Burgundy plunges -20% after turning to layoffs to navigate record-low diamond prices

Prospect's Mumbezhi Project puts it at the middle of copper's megatrend. And FQM just bought in

This rare type of lymphoma ruins the body – so do existing treatments. Prescient could have a solution

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 018 – Potatoes, TACOs, and the $120M helicopter heist

Featured News

Featured News

XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-4809

Top Stories

Week 29 Wrap: ASX hits new all time high of 8,766pts ahead of Aug 1

Burgundy plunges -20% after turning to layoffs to navigate record-low diamond prices

Prospect's Mumbezhi Project puts it at the middle of copper's megatrend. And FQM just bought in

This rare type of lymphoma ruins the body – so do existing treatments. Prescient could have a solution

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 018 – Potatoes, TACOs, and the $120M helicopter heist

Featured News

Featured News