WHC 3.84% $8.92 whitehaven coal limited

Target $18.72, page-620

  1. 616 Posts.
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    When to sell when sitting on a large gain, while a good problem to have, can be a difficult decision and one should generally consider multiple factors such as the updated valuation, updated percentage of portfolio, CGT consequences, and other investment opportunities.

    Your apparent success with APT I don't think is directly comparable with current holders evaluating their options with WHC. Are you sure you sold into the takeover? You were very bullish towards the takeover, and posted several times post takeover with sentiments buy and held, and made the comment on 19/3/22 "RIP the people who didn't load up more when it was low 120s (low 120s post takeover is equivalent to approximately high 40s pre takeover, and the price when you posted this with sentiment buy and held was equivalent to approximately $64). The current price is worth approximately $35 (more than 75% below its peak price when your sentiment was still buy and held) for APT holders still holding. APT's meteoric share price rise was not backed by any profits (still hasn't turned a profit) and its business model is unproven at best.

    WHC on the other hand had a $2bn profit last financial year, which will increase significantly this financial year if coal prices hold up, compared to an enterprise value lower than its $10bn market cap and shares on issue decreasing. So while I agree that whc could still go significantly higher (I'm still holding after buying back in around $4.50 after selling some nhc as my nhc holding was getting too large. Sold a little more nhc recently for the same reason even though I think the valuation is above current prices), I suspect it is only coincidental that we're in alignment here.
 
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