recommendation, page-5

Goodoil I think these analysts take the companies claims of prospects and probabilty at face value. Many of the smaller companies are very dubious in how they report prospect size with quite a few targeting billion barrel targets.(yeh right) So even with a low probabilty of success the risk value ends up being quite high. Ofcourse when the target is never drilled or ends up being a duster them the risked value goes to Zero. I suspect Peter has done the same thing in coming up with a. $4.20 target for Tap. The difference is Taps taget sizes seem reasonable specifically the gas targets based on surrounding discoveries. There are also numerous targets not one and the chances of success is often derived through the internal staff so this may or may not be accurate. I can see that arriving at a risked value of 4.20 is very possible I would discount exploration upside by 60percent to factor on farm down, targets that are never drilled and targets that fail. However the reality still is that the upside is in the dollars with success and the downside 10-30 cents with failure.