I am reluctant to make forecasts because I am often wrong.
AND THIS IS NOT ADVICE BUT SPECULATION
But... LOL
The company has a $14m market cap and we have:
- Almost 200Mt of very high grade iron ore (DRI quality) for drilling conducted on about 35% of the strike length at Bekisopa
- Bekisopa is a highly prospective "district" with 6 target areas
---- one of which has had drilling
---- one has had rock chip sampling
---- 4 that are just identified as elector magnetic anomalies
- 2 secondary resources on the East Coast
---- Ambodilafa
---- Tratramarina
I honestly thought we would have hit at least $0.50cps when we announced the maiden resource, but perhaps this didn't happen as there were delays and the maiden resource was delivered in 2 parts over the course of a month.
At the time of announcement for the maiden resource, our share price was double what it is today, which was a market cap of about $25m
Wild Speculation
Positive studies should return very compelling commercials for DSO, as well as give some insight to DRI potential.
The key factors are:
- DSO resource size and grade (I think it will be 4mt at +65% grade. We should have details from the infill drilling in H1 2023, or 3 - 5 months)
- Start up costs (I think about $150m - $200m)
- Operational costs (should be extremely low - I think as low as $5 - $10 per tonne for DSO)
- Mining operations 2Mt per year using similar numbers as above will mean
---- $135USD/t sale price
---- $50USD/t FOB costs
---- $85USD/t profit
---- 2Mt X $85USD/t = $170m USD, or $265m AUD, in "profit" - 19X our current share price
- Transport costs (road, port and shipping) - see below
- Energy (could result is significant capex depending on how they want to do it, will it be all diesel or mix of renewables from the start?)
- Environmental considerations should be minimal due to the landscape and the minimal use of water
- Shares on issues (currently 78m)
I think the biggest question will be around the transport.
We will know the route, and have a high level understanding of the costs, but road transport will likely be outsourced to a transport partner who will likely charge us a per tonne fee. I doubt we will have a firm quote for this, just an estimate.
I did some estimates previously, and I think the round trip will take about 12 - 14 hours, or almost 2 trips per day per truck.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/good-volume-yesterday.6441209/page-32?post_id=58774432
Given all of this, and because of country risk, and the fact we do not yet have a mining license and the fact we will need to raise funds to go mining, I think the share price might go up to $0.40c, or as high as $0.75c
This would mean a market cap of around $30m - $50m.
Once we get a mining license, then it becomes an issue of raising money.
Given the expected commercials a mining license could push the share price up over $1, which would be good because if we raise $200m @ $1 per share, we will have about 300m shares on issue by the time we go mining.
300m shares with earnings per share (EPS) of nearly $1 (given $265m AUD "profit") will be massive, and depending on the dividend policy of the company we could have a healthy DPS, and that will rocket the share price.
There should also be minimal to no dilution for the expansion works once we go DSO mining and start making money.
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