"Retired, plug that into your spread sheet and see what you think somebody could afford to pay and still get a reasonable rate of return."
Haven't looked at the spreadsheet for a while and trying to update variables that are pretty rubbery. Have increased CAPEX from STO estimate of US$1.715bn to US$2.0bn. Not sure this is enough as it only represents a 10% increase and high CAPEX was the FID issue. Using US$60 pb revenue and 50% PRRT and royalty however I admit I know little about this but believe 50% is conservative. Using 0.7000 FX conversion.
Based on these variable net cash flow to CVN just for Doradooil is around US$0.30c per share or AU$0.41. No income tax or NPV calculations done.
Again I believe the variables used (POO, PRRT and royalty) are conservative so there is likely some upside. Also number of shares has increased from 1.5bn to 1.8b and AU$100m cash ignored (say 5c per share). Can update for different variables but CAPEX is the wildcard. I can now understand CAPEX has affected FID as I recall my last calculation had net cash flow of around AU$0.60 but other variables also used.
Of course this excludes Pavo, gas and blue sky exploration values. Value of gas is now more relevant and Dorado, Roc and PS have a lot. Blue sky potential is enormous now that strike rates are good. Bedout could be a real gold mine but buckets of cash required to unlock any value. Hope this helps. Not sure offer of $1.00 per share is reasonable given the current uncertainty. As a SH I would not be interested in selling much below 50c. And a low FX rate may encourage USD company to look more closely.
Spreadsheet is a real back of the envelope analysis but I've tried to be conservative.
CVN Price at posting:
14.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)