Of course the Russians have hit cargo ships. Plenty. At least 1× Bangladesh, 1x Estonian owned and Panama flagged, 1x Japanese owned Panama flagged, 1x Maltese (Azov Sea). Re: Minefields being laid - that makes sense from a Ukr perspective as their Navy was attacked and they didn't want to facilitate a landing invasion along the coastline.
Unplug the infusion line for a moment, all that Kremlin propaganda is going straight into your bloodstream.
I don't see Odessa falling as it is too valuable for Ukraine for them to let that happen, but who knows.
Only point I agree with you on is that Europeans won't starve because they have other levers they could pull.
Re: immigration to Europe this has been a problem for the last decade - that's not new - if you have travelled along the coastal med - you'll see illegals selling their wares on towels in many busy streets, ready to pack up their stuff in a hurry should police be nearby. What Russia is trying to do is stretch those social resources further, by hitting Ukr elec grid, trying to create conditions for instability and limited employment prospects therefore incentivising more folks to seek refuge back across Western Europe.