@horizon3 says "The Li hype won't last forever"
Some recent research says that demand may plateau (ie. remain constant) for a couple of years leading up to 2028 but the Lithium deficit becomes stark when the experts begin modelling out to 2040 and beyond.
Some recent facts:
From the recognised expert in the field - Benchmark Minerals (13/10/2022)
Without recycling, we will need 234 new lithium mines by 2050 to meet the staggering demand. Today, Benchmark Minerals tracks just 40 mines which produced lithium this year.
The data highlights the challenge of scaling up lithium production from new mining projects, which can take over five years to bring online. Near-term, a total of 2.9 million tonnes LCE will be needed by 2032, more than the 2.7 million tonnes of cumulative global production of lithium between 2015 and 2022, according to Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast. “The long term path for lithium is set, yet the supply chain scaling challenge has just begun,” Simon Moores, chief executive of Benchmark, explained. “What this data shows is that we are at just the beginning of a generational challenge, not one that’s going to be solved in the 2020s.”
By 2040, all of the lithium mined last year will only meet one month’s demand, even with the supply from recycled batteries
From Professor David Kipping - ZDNet (15/08/2022)
Lithium is not an infinite resource. In fact, according to Kipping, once EVs dominate the car market, there's about 70 years' worth of lithium until the identified global reserves are themselves depleted.After that, we'd have to turn to pulling lithium from the sea, which is a much more expensive proposition.
From the McKinsey Institute
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