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PRD2427

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04/11/22

10:38

Post #: 64585924
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Originally posted by CDO22: ↑

It's fair to say that markets have crashed many Fintech (and not only). I would say though that this is not a reason to consider the financials of SPX with blind faith. You can look at it from 2 angles:
Bottom-up, looking at the actual detailed performance of the business and taking into account what we know, they will not be profitable without a change in business model. They need a significant amount of turnover to go through their payment service, and charge for it. Single digit quarterly volumes will not make it unfortunately. We're talking 10x what they are currently processing + actually charging for it. There is nothing tangible we can point to, to give us confidence that they have customers that will pay.
Top-down, looking at comparables, is probably the most crushing view... As Mr Q says it with his annoying style, $700K of quarterly revenues does not justify a near $40mio valuation (and we're not even talking about the cost structure here). Many listed Fintech have over 20x such revenues, and are struggling with valuations 2x SPX's.
That's the analytical view. I respect the hope that motivates some here. The sector that SPX is in will for sure see tremendous growth. So one can add to the analysis some growth factors and be somehow comforted that SPX will make it. And look, I hope that will indeed happen. But right now, based on what we know, it is not looking good.
I personally believe delisting + take-over of some kind by a crew that knows what they're doing and have capital + experience to bring would be a good outcome. Yes, because that would mean that someone believes that what SPX has built is worth $$$. This is really what need to see from here, some validation of the highly hopeful growth assumptions...

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You had me right up to delisting.

I wouldn't be opposed to a change of management to some degree, although would think it worthwhile to keep AF in some capacity or another.

One of the concerns I do have is just how much of AF is in SPX and vice versa.

Interesting times ahead. Will they be interesting enough to get across the line?

Time will tell.

SPX Price at posting: 1.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 0.8¢		Change -0.002(20.0%)		Mkt cap ! $34.59M

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