I'm not concerned I have ARU and an eye on Iluka. Anyway, they're playing in largely different fields. ARU is going to produce Nd/Pr plus phosphoric acid and Ilu similarly. ASM is initially using Nd/Pr to make the magnet material which is proving pretty challenging too. Plus the Ti/ Cu alloys at a higher recovery rate (of Ti). The latter also being a breakthrough. So their process is complementary. If one wanted to quote a competitive element to that it would be Lynas' new Plant in Texas (which the Chinese are trying to spike).
When we get to production of Nd Pr and other individual higher REE's plus Zirconium by ASM there will be demand for it much of the way (financing) paved by ARU & ILU. Eg. ARU has said they will be producing about 5% of the Nd/Pr demand. But demand is expected to grow (CAGR) between say 8- 12%. Anyway, we can't just assume their start and ramp-up will go totally smoothly ( as the federal govt' seems to given our experience.
I think Wood McKenzie has predicted some lessening of the premium pricing for ND/ PR around 4 years out but that would have to be with the assumption of ASM's and other projects all getting away on time (which hasn't happened). I (was involved with) and think the situation will be more like lithium hydroxide.
In summary, constantly looking at what's happening, including fund manager's actions, has prompted my (progressive) investments in ASM and others. I suspect the Ti/Cu alloy production will be an ace. I feel for those who put larger amounts of money in ASM at higher prices but have tried to express sufficient positivity, based on my experience, to reflect my views.
I'm in for the raising but didn't try to 'hit the cover off the ball' before.
Sorry for the verbose response.
All IMVHO.
ASM Price at posting:
$1.77 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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