Broker Data, page-508

The other view is that some posters have an overly negative opinion and keep focussing the discussion on their negative views with little regard for the positives which may put some potential investors off of doing their research into what most here believe is a very good investment. Those negative focussed posts might also reinforce fears of some current holders that are worried about the lower sp. Some are influenced by what they read here. Psychology is powerful in investing. A sp may be falling mostly due to a short term reason such as a desire for some investors to cash up in a bear market or an option holder selling to raise cash to exercise their options. The market can only guess why the sp might be falling. Many suggestions are put forward on forums like this. It may be predominantly one factor pushing the price down meaning most of our explanations are probably incorrect or only played a small part. I have put forward my thoughts on what I think are likely reasons (the two above) for the current low. Along the way I have also mentioned other possible contributing factors like the election uncertainty at that time. What I won't do is insist that those are definitely the correct reasons and keep focussing the discussion on them.
The DFS delay may have contributed but is highly unlikely to have been the reason for the majority of the fall because I have seen many other companies with similar delays not having their sp impacted like this. Some insist it's mismanagement while many of us are very happy with how far the company has come since we invested. The biggest achievement may be the agreement on the 1.1c/kwh for 200MW of green power for the green ammonia project and patnering up with Stamicarbon who is very positive about the project's economics and has begun their technical studies into the project. That project wasn't even mentioned when I first invested and I am very grateful that Lindsay has put that project into the company. That green ammonia project has incredible potential to make existing shareholders very large returns yet I rarely hear any praise for management getting that project to this stage. While still early stage, the government is clearly backing it with the allocation of discounted power and the land and the cheap green power almost guarantees a very positive DFS outcome and IMO very likely will lead to development. If this green ammonia project isn't economically viable at 1.1c/kwh, then the nearest competitors at around 4-5c have no hope. A strongly economic project will be backed. We have recent new additions to the board with good track records and experience. The Evolution capital report yesterday gave good detail on their backgrounds.
Keeping the discussion balanced is great. Focussing on and insisting that management is the reason for the sp decline is not just not helpful, it's also wrong IMO. The point is no one really knows so let's not insist we do know.
This "the market has spoken " phrase shows ignorance of the market IMO. I've been around long enough to see enough volatility in enough stocks to know the market is often both very wrong and pretty dumb a lot of the time. Traders chase momentum and drive stocks to ridiculous highs and extremely oversold lows on a daily basis across the market. WA1 recently went on on incredible run peaking a few days ago and then halving from that peak on the same day. I've seen plenty of stocks do much larger extremes over longer time frames, gaining ten fold in a year and then losing 80 or 90% over the following year. Do we blame these moves on management of those companies or on the psychology of traders? The answer is obvious enough. Yes sometimes we can blame management in isolated cases but most of the time it's traders chasing momentum both up and down.
Do yourselves a favour- DYO thorough research and invest when a stock you like is being bagged heavily on forums and when the sp seems to be stabilising after a steep fall to a point where it offers compelling value. You may not get the timing perfect but it definitely beats buying near a peak. I see very compelling value here now. I saw compelling value at 10c. I don't think anyone will go wrong buying anywhere below 15c and holding for a year.
This now has the best upside potential it's had since I bought. Much better upside potential than when it dropped to 5c over a year ago because at that time we didn't have the green ammonia.