"At a gas price estimate of USD 4/Mscf (thousand standard cubic feet), the minimum economic field size is estimated to be around 750 Bscf recoverable, while a discovery in the region of 12.3 trillion cubic feet is expected to have a Net Present Value (NPV) of around USD 3.6 billion. With gas prices expected to remain above USD 6/Mscf for the foreseeable future, a discovery of 8.2 trillion cubic feet is expected to have an NPV above USD 5.3 billion, expected payback within 10 years and an IRR of 17.7%. Invictus Energy Limited has recently reported that the targeted prospects could hold in excess of 20 Tcf (trillion cubic feet). For the purpose of this this exercise, recoverable volumes were limited to 12.3 Tcf, and any additional discovered volumes would be commercial. The breakeven price (BEP) for a discovery of between 4.1 to 12.3 Tcf remains below USD 3/Mscf but the BEP stabilises above 8.2 Tcf. This is attributed to the fact that the extended pipeline costs are included in the CAPEX from a 4.1 Tcf discovery and higher, but the only additional cost would be drilling of more wells, not additional infrastructure. For a discovery below 4 Tcf, the BEP increases more drastically closer to USD 4/Mscf."
I reckon we might be somewhere between 4 Tcf and 7 Tcf + condensate + oil, based on my back of the envelope from ERCE numbers and assuming Upper Angwa is a monster.
At this stage of the game a $1bn market cap seems like a pretty realistic target. and don't forget the Basin Margin plays of 1.2bn bbls which we get for free!
Loads of upside here.
A monster discovery.
IVZ Price at posting:
27.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
