Haha, it's almost like TNT itself as a company was in different stages at those different times! C'mon, you're a better analyst than that. You're hands down one of the best analysts taking part in the TNT discussions, in many ways better than myself, you're usually very objective, and this concept is very simple.
Back then I was bullish on TNT, it was looking promising, TNT's price was increasing, there was plenty of reason to be optimistic, so absolutely, when the industry gets a boost, a promising company is probably going to benefit in that way.
Some time down the track and TNT had failed to meet expectations. Management had promised to turn the train wreck to a red rattler and eventually to a bullet train (their analogy). We were seeing that tangible improvement so had reason to have faith in them. Then, the figures stopped improving, they started to disappoint rather than impress, the market became sceptical, people like me sold and weren't going to buy back in until there was tangible reason for optimism. That still hasn't happened, so the share price is languishing, so if the industry gets a boost, it's not likely to help a red rattler which is struggling to stay on the rails and avoid becoming train wreck once again, despite all the promises that by now it would be a bullet train.
Put it this way, if I put money into some upgrades on a broken down car worth nothing, it's still worth nothing, but if I do that to some hot rod, I might increase the value. If I put a new bathroom and kitchen into a house people suspect is going to be demolished, I increase the house's value by nothing. The market needs to see that TNT can become profitable and have a good future before the industry has much relevance to it. Sure, I may be slightly exaggerating with my analogies to illustrate the concept, and maybe I could have found better analogies, but hopefully the concept makes sense - a boost to the industry gives a multiple benefit to a company in that industry based on the prospects of that company. Surely even the most faithful TNT bulls seeing long term glory can see that at this point the market views TNT with extreme scepticism.
And while I'm here I'll point out that I actually have more optimism for TNT in the long term than the market does, but my strategy (as will be clear to anyone who has been watching) is as much about understanding the market's views as it is about understanding company fundamentals, because it is the market which sets the price. If I know the share price is going to drop, I don't care what the fundamentals are, I'm not going to buy or hold. I'm not meaning to imply that TNT is definitely going to ever succeed, just that I think it has a better chance than the market gives it. The overall market's attitude to this company is quite predictable, and the subset of the market which is bullish on TNT at this point (most of the people here) is also extremely predictable, but in great contrast to the market, hence all the confusion and upset.
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