AZL (ASX) AZL Weekly Report

Weekly Review Li Stocks - 11th Nov 2022

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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I have also included my Diary - predictions, my holdings, my plans for the week. Caution around Diary - This is just my opinion/plan. Probability wise one person can be wrong many times, even all the time, so please use information accordingly. So for those who like leisurely reading, enjoy.
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My last weeks report, luckily most things have come as I expected, including risk/reward etc. I can be lucky with my calls, so please use information accordingly.
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Overall for this week - For over couple of months I have been calling that we need to be above 3900 on SP 500. Also, a big likelyhood that we may test 4100/4150. After much ups and downs, we closed at 3992 on Friday. The odds of testing the level I have been talking for some time has never been better. Although indices gained on Thursday, ASX punters were still scared it might e another bear rally and stocks did not rise much on Friday. On Friday, US indices gained again. I feel we will now see ASX punters stepping up. This may be a defining week for a number of reasons.
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Risk-Reward from here ( this is still relevant even after three weeks and hence copied from my 3 week back weekly report. Its still relevant and is partially paying off. We have not yet got full gains, we may be at starting point, and upside could be still huge - hence its relevant):
I have been following the price action very closely, in my figures, rise from June bottom etc.
There is a chance we can have another sell down next week on indices - we could reach lower low (below 3491 on SP 500) or higher low.
At this stage, punters, markets have factored in all bad news, most feel we are near bottom, if not we have seen bottom.
If indices were fall, even big, stocks that I follow would drop another 10 to 20% - most likely another 10%.
But if what I am reading and seeing in price action is that we are near bottom or seen bottom, and its time to rally, we are looking at gains between 40% to 100% in next few months - individual stocks will carve their own path though where they fall
So at this stage of market - Risk-Reward is very good, one of the best I can think for a while
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Next week SP 500 and other indicators path:
A big week coming up. I have been calling for a big fight at 4100/4150 level - its on now
Friday rise confirmed for many doubters that Thursday big rise was not a trap
For next week - first target around 4100/4150 - to get over 200 day moving average - that will be bullish
Next immediate level is 4200 - long term trend line sloping downwards. Overcoming this will be another bullish sign
If we cross 4200, we don't know what will happen. Very few contemplated that we may reach here. We may have to take one step at a time and look what happens.
For those not convinced of the rally, profit taking can happen at levels I mentioned
Yields are decreasing, Dollar index falling, VIX falling - all positive for stocks
No major economic drive for next few week. The PPI data and unemployment figures may provide some direction. So mostly technical indicators will drive market
Next Friday is Options Expiry - Market Makers (those who manage Wall Street and pay out for Calls and Puts) may manipulate again. Sometimes they have to pay out 100s of billions of dollars. So they can/and do manipulate. Something to keep an eye on. Will look at Thursday what is maximum pain for Calls/Puts - market may move to that number for Friday
My gut feel - We may see 4100/4150 very likely. Good chance for 4200. But have an open mind after that. I will not be surprised to see the rally continue, but not before we have some down days and back test of support

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Personally: I called back sometime around the risk reward and saying its very favorable to be in market rather than out. So in terms of my portfolio, I am mostly in. Most of my current trades are taking profits as they are reaching targets or switching from one stocks to another - moving from those not performing great to others. All details in my diary. At this stage for U stocks I am still waiting to get confirmation and hence mostly trading Li stocks.
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.What are analysts saying - I had never seen so many bearish analysts on Wednesday. Majority of them were bearish, and many believed we may have a big crash like 2008 after getting bad CPI data. Just shows its not easy out there, us amateurs and so called great analysts. Of course CPI was a binary event as I said, but still tone was very pessimistic. Thankfully its changed after that event. Many feel that we will go higher in short term
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.Stock specific Info:
Last week I said - AZL needs to hold 8c - we did that well
Next week if markets improve, then I have a good feeling we will be high 8s
If markets continue to improve, which I am expecting, we should be in double digits soon, possibly this week
I have picked up decent trading shares now (besides my long term shares). Trading shares I want to sell in double digits, soon. After a long time I feel it may happen soon.
There has never been a better time to be in Li - 7 stocks did their 52 week high this week
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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Rise from June Bottom:
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.MY DIARY - its good, but please be careful !!..
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