weekend charting march 18-20, page-43

Morning all. I see a couple of banks amongst requests so far. Thought I would post a summary of all 4 big banks plus the XXJ (financials excl REITs), because I've been following this index closely in recent times:

Here's the index daily chart:


The XXJ has reached its November and January highs, but is still short of the October high. Its currently showing some hesitation at this resistance level, as evidenced by the 2 doji candles formed in the last 2 days trading.
As with all the banks except NAB, the MAVs are bullish, all trending positively, the MACD is trending upwards, and the Stochastic has been running along in the 90's almost since this rally began.

ANZ and WBC have been the most similar in their trading characteristics in the past 3-4 months and have been strongest performers. Both hit their previous (October) highs in the last couple of days. Both have shown the strongest breakout from their previous downtrend channels.

ANZ daily:


WBC daily:


CBA did not suffer the same downtrend as the other 3 banks. It has made a weak break above the top of a trading range formed by its October and November highs, and its February low, but is still short of its January high.

CBA daily:


NAB has been the laggard of the herd, primarily I think because of the circumstances surrounding the AXA deal and probably also its greater O/S exposure. Nevertheless, it has like ANZ and WBC broken out of its downtrend, albeit it has not shown the same resilience in regaining former high ground. As a consequence, its MAVs show a slightly weaker story than the others, with the 41EMA dipping below the 195EMA, and just now looking like crossing back over & up.

NAB daily:


In my view the banks are at a watershed at the moment. The chart signals look predominantly bullish, particularly in almost all cases the MAVs, but also the supporting technicals. However weighed against a continued bullish outlook is the fact that 2 of the 4 are at their previous 52 week highs, and a 3rd has not yet confirmed a confident breakout of its current resistance level.

As we always say, next week may be a key week. I think this is never more true than for the banks next week. Its decision time for the bulls and bears as far as ANZ and WBC go, and whichever way they go they will drag CBA and NAB along to some degree.

As far as trading opportunities I see the following:

1. NAB is probably the best value long trade due to the fact that it has lagged the others and has not regained former high ground to the same degree. Unless the view is that it is being fundamentally re-rated in comparison to the other 3, then its a possible long entry at or just above about 26.30 where the 41/195 EMAs are atm, (with a stop at 26?).

2. ANZ and WBC are set nicely for short trades with a relatively tight stop just above their October highs.

Hope the above is of interest. Cheers, Sharks.