(Have started a new thread for Daily Report. Last week someone suggested this in one of the threads. Many are not interested in Daily Reports, so its easy to stay away by not looking at thread. For those interested, they can look at previous ones easily. Hope its fine).
Today was as expected - next - backtest or continue run?
Yes AZL gained 1 pip to finish on 8.2c. Our volume today was our average of recent times, just over 14.8m shares traded. Still in same zone, lets hope we get out soon - it wants to.
ASX Li stocks could not make big gains overall. Of 54 stocks that I track, average gain was 1%. As is usual with start of anything bullish, the big stocks make the first move. We again saw some of the big stocks continue on their march. Once the run momentum can be maintained, others will catch up. Hence many mid to small caps have not been able to get similar gains. Its not unusual and a very common pattern I have found that is repeated most of the time. Lets hope the run continues for some time so all can catch up.
What next -
The US indices are on a run. SP 500 sitting at 3992, itself a key busy zone. Monday's are usually good US markets. But we are coming on the back of a very big day and followed it by a decent day.
There are mixed opinion around what may happen from here. One thought is that it may be healthy to back test, especially 3900 once again. this is roughly just over 2% below. A test below and then coming back would be considered good by many chartists. Other thought is that we have stayed above 3900 for couple of days, so now is the time to play with real fire - first 4100/4150 and then 4200. For those bearish, and there are fair few, they believe we will fail once again at this level - same levels where we failed earlier in August, May, March etc. Going past this may mean we may have seen a a bottom and this is no longer a bear market rally.
The bears are still stuck to another theory. Till now the correlation between markets of 2008 and 2022 is nearly 90%. Based on 2008 pattern, we may go slightly higher and then have the big crash. It looks unlikely now, but its good to have an open mind.
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So what will happen tonight? Not much economic data, PPI tomorrow and some employment reports. Also some Fed talks. These may be market drivers. Otherwise technicals. I am not sure about tonight but in short period feel we may test the real targets between 4100 and 4200. If Monday's plays out its usual, there is a chance we may get closer towards it. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best.
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