It didn't quite get to the target again today (513 was my revised target based on
@acwbagnall 's original chart (that I noted in a post yesterday), but I think 510 is close enough. With the 9/21 EMA cross (well, virtual cross since on my trading system chart it is only a pixel below or maybe not), and the failure to run harder on the day's news, I am calling the B wave completed and the C wave commencing so it is time to pick a target.
@Acwbagnal's last chart had it at I think around 420, and he has a habit of getting this stuff right, but then it didn't get to his B wave target of 520, so maybe he will revise that. His usual approach for casting the C wave is to take the length of the A wave from the top of the B wave, which gives us a target of 410. I think that is probably the worst case. The alternatives are marked on the chart with red arrows and green rays:
1. 449 (I'll explain this later)
2. 432 : The bottom of wave 4
3. 426 : 61% fib of the entire 1 - 5 wave climb
4. 410 : length of the A wave.
Others not marked - there is also a possibility of a much more catastrophic drop if external factors impact (total economic collapse, mass layoffs, war, chewing gum stuck on my shoe, etc.) These should not be discounted because we are also finishing a cycle of a cycle and the retrace could be more significant - but at this point I don't think we have the other factors indicated, although I am happy to be corrected.
Now, the top one of 449, is surprisingly perhaps, my preferred target. This makes use of that yellow channel I have been carrying on the chart for ages and kept saying to disregard. Now we need to regard it. It has been there for precisely this event. It is the support channel invented by someone with an unpronounceable name that I forget. It is created by drawing a line between the 2 lows of wave 1 and 2 and then running a parallel channel from the high of wave 1. This channel is then projected all the way through the 5 wave cycle and it gives 2 pieces of information: The A wave of the retrace should find support in the top half of the channel (which you will note it did) and the C wave should find support in the bottom part of the channel. The bottom of that following my projected down channel is around 447. Hence the target. Obviously it depends on how fast we get there. If we get there tomorrow the target is 443, in 3 days time 449.
@acwbagnall - any comment? (+ any chance of an update to your EW projection chart, or does it stay the same?)
(20min delay)