MFG 0.53% $9.44 magellan financial group limited

Valuation still looks convincing, page-16

  1. 10,235 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1411
    What is shocking, is how catastrophically wrong you are.

    "I could not care less about an active manager with a standard deviation of 10% versus 20% for the corresponding index fund that it's trying to outperform. "

    For long term wealth creation, which is what you are trying to achieve, the standard deviation of returns is often far more important than the returns themselves.

    Take this for a hypothetical example:
    Year12345678910Average
    1Index15%8%12%13%-25%3%25%16%-30%14%5.10%
    2Fund12%5%10%10%-18%7%18%14%-20%8%4.60%
    3Relative-3%-3%-2%-3%7%4%-7%-2%10%-6%-0.500%

    In this example:
    • The fund underperforms in 7 out of the 10 years or 70% of the time (similar to your active vs passive return comparison).
    • The average return of the fund over the 10 years is 0.5% lower than the index, so the fund underperforms there as well.
    • But because the standard deviation of the funds returns is also lower, the compounding return of the fund is higher, and the fund outperforms the index as a result.

    In finance, it is not the average return that matters, it is the compounding return.

    Starting with $100 and compounding the above returns results in this:
    Year012345678910
    1Index$100.00 $115.00 $124.20 $139.10 $157.19 $117.89 $121.43 $151.78 $176.07 $123.25 $140.50
    2Fund$100.00 $112.00 $117.60 $129.36 $142.30 $116.68 $124.85 $147.32 $167.95 $134.36 $145.11

    The fund's compounding return is 3.8% versus the index at 3.5%.
    Last edited by convexity: 25/11/22
 
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