I'm pretty sure that in one of the recent interviews Tim spoke of a plant output of 180kt so I think your assumption of 240kt may be optimistic.
Actually achieving a sale price of $12,000/t is very optimistic. Obviously if an offtake partner is going to be providing finance they will want something in return. They are going to want a contract price well below the market spot price. I would work on a conservative estimate of perhaps $6,000/t.
Royalty payable to the WA government is 5%. Company tax is irrelevant as this is returned to shareholders as a franking credit.
Processing cost of $160m per year sounds reasonable.
Given the current shares on issue, that equates to an EPS of $3.30.
I assume we're probably going to have to issue more shares as part of the funding arrangement. Let's assume we increase our shares on issue by 50%. That still gives us an EPS of $2.20.
Easily enough to pay fully franked dividends of $1/share per year.
ESS Price at posting:
42.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
