mgn a methanol competitor??, page-12

Hi Mr Stark

I wouldn't have expected you to read the millions of posts that find there way onto the MEO forum.

It was just laziness on my part by re-posting and I know you weren't down ramping. I apologise if I gave that impression.

Here's my take on the situation.

I remember it was 9 Mar when I first noticed Evans Shoal was divided and up for bidding. The relative post is here.

Santos must have re-applied for the NT/P48 permit and, of course, kept the area containing North and South Evans Shoal gas fields. This left NT/P09-1 up for bidding which MGN were interested in and secured.

They must have been negotiating with STO who were interested in selling this part of their portfolio but the purchase must have been dependent on the successful acquisition of NT/P09-1.

These have just happened. I heasr MEOmites saying 'why can't our deal with the PF for 360P be as quick? but don't forget STO and MGN would have been negotiating this sale since MGN had put the bid in for NT/P09-1, probably last June. And CUE weren't involved.

And hi fred,

Thanks for reminding us about MEO's June report which says:

.... however deferred the farm-out pending the consideration of alternatives which might arise from changes of ownership at the nearby Evans Shoal gas field'

When I looked at the Bonaparte Title Map here I noticed NT/P68 had already been split up after MEO's application in late 2009 seeking a five year renewal.

I was wondering why MEO had not confirmed the renewal and at the time contemplated that if the permit had been renewed then it is surprising the market hasn't been notified yet - otherwise how can the NT show the division on their map?

Now we can put it all together. Perhaps the sequence of events is this.

. MGN realise that the Evans Shoal (P48) permit was up for renewal and about to be divided - definite.
. MGN approached STO who were trying to off-load their 40% operatorship of P48 with an interest to purchase - definite.
. The buy out of STO's interest in P48 was dependent on a successful bid for NT/P09-1 - definite.
. MGN's bid for NT/P09-1 was successful so the first part of the plan is complete.

In the mean time (now for the crystal ball):

. MGN also approached MEO regarding the fact that Tassie Shoal was located in the P48 permit - possible.
. MGN also discussed a possible farmin to NT/P68 (Blackwood and Heron) which led to MEO to defer the farmout as stated in their June 09 report - possible.
. Petrofrac bow out of their 10% farmin to P48 - definite.
. About the same time MEO apply to extend their lease on P48 of which they now own 100%. At the same time they take Petrofrac off the title - definite.
. P68 is divided as shown on the NT map (link above) so the lease for P68 has been renewed - almost definite.
. MGN will farm-in to P68 - possible.
. MGN and/or MEO will make a bid for the remainder of P68 after the split which will re-named and be put up for auction this year by the NT - possible.
. NTP68 and NTP48 will be rejoined into a sizeable piece of real estate in the Bonaparte Basin with an approved site, until 2052, for two Methanol Plants and an LNG plant on Tassie Shoal - possible.
. This will be fed by gas from Evans Shoal (North and South), Blackwood and Heron - possible.
. Other gas fields are in the area, according to MEO seismics, making it a giant supply base - possible.
. Like Dr Daz says, MEO may have another farminee in the wings (Statoil?) who would also like to join in the fun of developing and building a $2b floating LNG & Methanol plant - possible.

These are only my views and I can but only dream.

But if all the above is correct, along with Artemis, now b>wouldn't that be company making.

Cheers

#:>))