when will this thing turn around, page-48

Gavo, perhaps my post and your reply neatly sum up the conundrum facing this stock - a conundrum being a difficult choice or decision that must be made. While you choose to laugh at me, and call me crazy, buyers ARE still buying at ever-lower levels, so they must think it good value, else why would they buy today when there's a damn good chance they could get them tomorrow at an even lower price? Why doesn't it just gap down savagely instead of falling at what appears to be a well-managed pace? Coulod it be that the price action reflects a degree of uncertainty/wariness at where fair/good value is, and thus where it will stop?

So, who is selling and why, who is buying and why, what is the NPV of the company now, (indeed, how do we currently value it?), where is it going, and what will be the value when it gets there?

And no, it certainly isn't easy, even for a long term optimist like me, to see the price erosion of the past few weeks, especially as it seems without rhyme or reason. Is it because the SP is being manipulated by strong-handed players who are busy accumulating at levels they have falsely created using BOTs etc, and thus deem good value?

Or is it because the market judges the company in its current state of development to be overvalued? If so, why do Griffin and CCZ have 12 month valuations of $2.90- $3.45 on the CDIs? If these valuations are accurate and founded in sound analysis, which we must assume they are, then the bottom must happen soon. If not, the re-rate from wherever the bottom does occur, will be as rapid and dramatic as the slide.

All this in a market that, according to the latest report from global healthcare research outfit IMS Research, (refer FiercePharma 29 March), is going gangbusters - US health reform will boost US drug sales by 4-6% in 2010, with global growth continuing at 4-7% through to 2013.

"We've been a little surprised at the resilience of the market despite the downturn. People are still seeing their doctors, beginning and continuing therapy."

"Global sales continue to grow with emerging markets booming. China is expected to grow at 20% every year through to 2013 as healthcare becomes more readily available. Overall global drug sales are expected to grow to US$975 billion by 2013."

So, more drugs and more syringes, and we are all familiar with the growth targets for syringes which exceed by several percentage points the above growth targets for drugs.

In the middle of all this we have Unilife emerging as a truly disruptive force in the global sharps market, partnered with Sanofi Aventis, now ranked number 3 in the world by global prescription drug sales at US$35.1 billion, (Pfizer 1st with $41.7 and Novartis 2nd at $36.7 billion, refer same IMS report), yet the SP continues to slide?

I wish I knew the answer, where the bottom was and when it will come, but I don't, so unlike our trader friends on this thread, I shall just have to go for the ride.

Crazy indeed.