TER 5.68% 23.3¢ terracom limited

Potential Coal price cap and impact on TER, page-46

  1. 869 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 187
    I'm new to TER so please point out where I am wrong:

    I am sceptical that local producers can sell overseas at $350+ per tonne when the cap in Australia is $125/t. Basically, you're saying a) the price cap can be gamed, and b) no coal transactions will take place in Australia, as every producer will avoid selling domestically.

    Politics aside, I'm trying to figure out the dividend yield IF....yes IF....the price cap is imposed. (I know most here think it's not likely or it can be gamed, but I want to know what the dividend yield will be in the worst case scenario)


    Per quarterAnnualised
    Source
    Coal Sales2.34Mt9.36Mt
    17 Oct 2022 quarterly





    Equity coal sales1.38Mt5.52Mt
    17 Oct 2022 quarterly
    Breakdown:



    BA452

    17 Oct 2022 quarterly
    South Africa928

    17 Oct 2022 quarterly
    BA in %32.8%

    simple calculation
    South Africa in %67.2%

    simple calculation










    Operating EBITDA180

    17 Oct 2022 quarterly
    Breakdown:



    BA121.5

    17 Oct 2022 quarterly
    South Africa58.8

    17 Oct 2022 quarterly
    BA in %67.5%

    simple calculation
    South Africa in %32.5%

    simple calculation















    Cash margin in Blair athol269 per sold tonne
    17 Oct 2022 quarterly
    Cash margin in South Africa31 per sold tonne
    17 Oct 2022 quarterly





    Achieved coal price in BA497

    17 Oct 2022 quarterly
    Achieved coal price in South Africa?







    Cost in BA228

    "497 minus 269"
    Cost in South Africa?







    Price cap impact?125 is lower than 228…negative










    Current dividend10cps


    Future dividend??



 
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