You came up to speed with PAA in a short space of time. Not investment advice but i'd say you are safe not betting on a significant return here for another 12 months. The hope of a canine deal in the short term is just that...hope. All indications from PAA are that there is time yet to go.
"Exploratory Discussions" = Tells me this is PAA tyre kicking for interest, not actual early negotiations. Meaning a deal is miles away.
"Potential partners don't see the opportunity" = Our results are not impressing them. Houston we have a problem...
"Phase 2 end targets don't actually matter" = We aren't getting what we hoped, so lets downplay it now in the hopes of warming the market to a failed Ph2b. Regardless the life extension is great but its not going to be received like that.
Recruitment Rates - Abysmally slow. Why aren't these picking up? Are vets not that interested. What are PAA doing about it. Nada, just go with the flow and let another year drift by.
Phase 3 - A prior announcement indicated they were going to skip finalising the bayesian approach (phase 2b) and go straight to phase 3 on advice from vets. Why didn't this happen? Another comment left to drift into the abyss without explanation. = Oops we got excited too early and actually found that Rogers tyre kicking produced no tangible interest...sorry boys but we are heading into completing the bayesian.
So while it may result in a deal at some point my predictions are :
- It won't occur until this time next year or early 2024. (timelines point to that)
- It will be a significantly less impressive of a deal that some here are anticipating. (if partners aren't impressed by our results now, then why would they be after another 21 dogs with the same result? Sounds like it's not the blockbuster yet again.)
- We will continue to be fed sweet FA and when we do it will be much of the same regurgitated claptrap we have heard for years. You know, Roger having discussions, excited by the opportunity, pharmas falling over themselves to get MPL, roger having more discussions)
Again, NOT investment advice!
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