first and foremost, page-4

  1. 2,614 Posts.
    Jeeper

    OBJ has an mcap of roughly $48M at present give or take a bit with sp and options. Lets say $50M.

    If they take up an inital sign on of $10M and then royalties of $10M p.a.

    Thats revenue of $20M in 2010, then revenue in 2011 of $10M from 3M. Presumably if 3M sign on then others will follow . If they could sign one more JV in 2011.

    Then take out operating cost of say $5M p.a.

    Its not hard to see the potential when most bios operate on rediculous PE multiples.

    Net $15M at PE 20 = mcap of $300 M = 6 bagger
    Net $25M at PE 20 = mcap of $500 M = 10 bagger
    If they sign 3 at Net $30M p.a. = mcap of $600M = 12 bagger.

    Get the picture. Its probably worth doing the calculations that you stated you where too lazy to do. It certainly casts another perspective on this company.

    Having said that the current volatility reflects that its potential, not certainty. Hence the huge risk reward that is at play.

    This is why i used the voaltility to establish a reasonable free carried position. More then happy to leave them on the table to see how many baggers it is or is not.
 
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